which some believe may exceed 100,000. Finally,
the prospects of potentially incurring a
heavy debt burden during the course of one's
medical education undoubtedly adds signif-
icantly to the concerns of prospective students
as they contemplate a medical career.
First-Year Applicants
During the decade from 1950 to 1960, the number
of applicants significantly decreased,
from 22,000 to 14,000 per year, and there was a
corresponding decrease in the
applicant/acceptee ratio, from 3.1:1 to 1.7:1.
From the early 1960s to its peak in 1974
there was a continual increase in the number of
applicants, from 14,000 to 43,000 per year.
Since then the number of applicants has
markedly declined, to under 28,000 in 1988; con-
sequently, the applicant/acceptee ratio again
decreased from 2.8:1 to 1.7:1. From 1989 on,
the applicant pool has risen sharply and
steadily to peak in 1996 at 47,000. Thus, over the
past half century there have been two major
declines--and possibly the start of a third--as
well as two major increases, dramatically
reflecting the ebb and flow of the applicant pool.
From what has been noted above, it is obvious
that there was a significant increase
in the odds of gaining admission by those who
applied during the 1975–88 period, when
on average, the applicant/acceptee ratio was
about 2:1, over applicants of the preceding
10 years when the ratio was closer to 3:1. In
the years 1987–92, the competition turned
out to be less than it had been since 1975.
This was due to the significant gradual
decline in the total number of applicants,
which was estimated to have been about 1,000
per year. From 1989 to 1996 there was a strong
and steady increase in the number of
applicants, rising dramatically from 26,900 to
47,000, while the number of available
places has remained about the same
(approximately 16,000). As noted, since 1997 the
applicant pool has declined for six successive
years, lowering the applicant/acceptee
ratio proportionately. The impact of this
reversal is considered below.
While the current near 2:1 ratio still presents
a formidable challenge, it need not be
taken as reflecting any particular individual's
chance for admission. Rather, it should be
taken as a general reflection of the level of
competition. The reason for this is that the
applicant pool no longer consists almost
entirely of white males as it did for well over the
first half of this century. The pool now
contains a very sizable female segment and a
smaller minority segment, which together make
up more than 50% of the freshman class
each year. This situation makes it more
difficult to define the exact odds for any particu-
lar individual to gain admission solely on the
basis of the applicant/acceptee ratio. The
problem of mathematically defining the
intensity of competition is compounded by the
fact that about one-fourth of the total
applicant pool may be repeaters, whose chances for
admission usually are significantly less than
are those of new applicants. Thus, in trying
to assess your own overall chances, many
factors come into play. These include sex, race,
residency, age, and financial status in
addition to intellectual achievement and potential.
Impact of Applicant Pool Size
Over the eight-year span (1988–96), the
most dramatic fluctuation in the size of the applicant
pool in a half century took place, from a very
depressed number (about 27,000), to a remark-
able record high (about 47,000). Such an
enormous change in so short a time is unlikely to
recur in the foreseeable future. It does,
however, serve to impressively demonstrate how the
size of the applicant pool significantly
influences one's chances of getting into medical
school as well as a variety of factors
associated with the admissions process. Even under
more normal circumstances, there are cyclical
phases in the size of the pool of applicants and
the impact of an above or below average number
of applicants (about 35,000) will also be
felt, although to a lesser degree, in a variety
of ways. Therefore, consideration of the multi-
faceted influence of the impact of the
applicant pool size is very important.
During interludes when the applicant pool is
very large (such as the mid-1970s and
mid-1990s), competition to secure a place is
naturally extremely high. Under these cir-
cumstances, the following also takes
place:
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