pool consistently increased until 1996. By 1993
the number of applicants surpassed the
previous peak year of 1974, and reached new
heights over each of the next three years.
After seven straight years of increases, a
decline in the applicant pool began in 1997
and continued to 2002. The past three years have
shown a modest recovery and an
upswing in applicants may possibly be in the
making (see graph). Of special interest to
prospective applicants, should be the
(rounded-off) applicant figures for the past nine
years. These can be extrapolated from the graph
of applicants.
Medical School Applicants (A) and Matriculates
(M)
1950–2005
Also encouraging is the fact that, in 2005,
17,000 freshmen enrolled in medical
schools. This is the highest number in several
decades. New medical schools are antici-
pated to open in Florida and Texas, which
should further increase allopathic medical
school enrollment.
Some educators linked the increase in the
applicant pool during most of the 1990s to
the prolonged economic recession in the early
1980s, when many professions no longer
provided assured job opportunities. Medicine
has retained its appeal as a means of pro-
viding a secure economic future; therefore,
students with a variety of majors were apply-
ing to medical school. Moreover, the surge in
applicants has also been fueled by women,
who now make up more than 40% of all medical
students, and by Asian Americans,
although representation in medical school by
other groups such as African-Americans
and Hispanic Americans has not been
growing.
In the light of the exceptional circumstances
associated with the change in size of
the applicant pool, it is very difficult to
predict at this time what the admission prospects
will be during the next decade. Clearly, a
variety of conditions over the next few years
will impact strongly on the issue.
There has been about a 25% decline in the
applicant pool over the five years
1997–2001. As a result, by 2001 the
applicant pool declined to about 35,000 or close to
12,000 below the peak year of 1996, bringing it
down to the 1994 level. From the events
of recent years it would appear that in 1997 we
may have entered the third major decline
in the applicant pool of this past half
century, the others being 1959–61 and 1984–88.
It
is not possible to predict where and when the
decline will bottom out. What is clear is
that as a result of the decline over the past
few years, the applicant/acceptee ratio has
finally gone down well below the long-standing
3:1 ratio (the general meaning of this
ratio change is discussed on page
87).
One can only speculate as to the reasons for
the current decline in the applicant pool.
Perhaps prospective medical students are
becoming concerned about the economic and
social forces that are transforming the nature
of the practice of medicine. They may also
be reacting to the growing chorus of discontent
with their profession, reflected by some
physicians, due to the negative impact of
managed care and a litigious society. The exist-
ing climate has not been enhanced by reports of
a prospective oversupply of physicians,
50,000
45,000
40,000
30,000
35,000
25,000
15,000
20,000
5,000
10,000
00
01
02
03
04
05
89
87
74
60
50
92
94
96
98
99
A
M
Years
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